Concert break-even calculator

What break-even is

Every show has two kinds of money. Fixed money is committed before a ticket sells: the artist’s guarantee and the show expenses — production, labour, marketing, the rest. Variable money arrives one ticket at a time, and not all of a ticket’s face value is yours. The building takes a facility fee, the state takes tax, the ticketing company takes its fee and the card processor takes a percentage. What survives all four is net box office — NGBOR — and it is the only money that pays the fixed cost down.

Break-even is where the two lines cross: the ticket count at which net box office equals guarantee plus expenses. Below it you are funding the show. Above it you are being paid for it.

The formula

net per ticket   = price − facility fee − tax − ticket fee − card %
fixed cost       = guarantee + show expenses
break-even       = fixed cost ÷ net per ticket      (rounded UP to a whole ticket)
sell-through     = break-even ÷ sellable capacity

Two things about that. Tax is inclusive — a $40 ticket in an 8% room contains $2.96 of tax, it does not have $3.20 added on — and it is taken from what is left after the facility fee, in that order. And sellable capacity is the room less comps and kills; a seat you cannot sell does not count toward the percentage.

A worked example

Room             1,000 capacity · no comps, no kills → 1,000 sellable
Ticket           $40.00
Facility fee     $2.00 per ticket sold      (the building's)
Ticket fee       $1.50 per ticket sold      (the ticketer's)
Tax              none in this room; cards settled net
Net per ticket   $40.00 − $2.00 − $1.50           =      $36.50

Guarantee        $15,000 flat
Show expenses    $12,000
Fixed cost       $15,000 + $12,000                =  $27,000.00

Break-even       $27,000 ÷ $36.50 = 739.7  →  740 tickets
                 740 of 1,000 sellable     =  74% of the house

Check            739 × $36.50 = $26,973.50   short by $26.50
                 740 × $36.50 = $27,010.00   clear by $10.00

The show breaks even at 74% of the house. The 0.7 of a ticket rounds up, because 739 tickets leaves you $26.50 short and there is no such thing as most of a ticket.

Reading it at 75%, 50% and 20%

The break-even percentage tells you where the line is. The reads at fixed sell-throughs tell you what is on each side of it, and they are the numbers to carry into the call.

Sellout   1,000 × $36.50 = $36,500 − $27,000  =  +$9,500
75%         750 × $36.50 = $27,375 − $27,000  =    +$375
50%         500 × $36.50 = $18,250 − $27,000  =  −$8,750
20%         200 × $36.50 =  $7,300 − $27,000  = −$19,700

75% is the read that matters most here, because it sits a hair above break-even: +$375 is not a profit, it is a show that pays for itself if nothing goes wrong. 50% is what a soft on-sale looks like — an $8,750 hole, most of it the guarantee. 20% is what the show costs if it is simply the wrong night. If the 20% number is one you cannot pay, the guarantee is too high for the room, whatever the 75% number says.

The calculator below reads at sellout, then 75%, 50% and 20% — break-even first, and the bad night last. Go one read lower than you think you need.

Try it

This is Fast Forma — the real engine, not a demo of one. It runs in your browser and nothing you type leaves the page. Four fields: capacity, average ticket price, guarantee, expenses. Signed in, a venue profile fills in the room’s facility fee, tax and ticketing fees; here, the net per ticket is the face price.

When the curve is not a straight line

A flat guarantee makes break-even a single crossing. A bonus — $5,000 more to the artist once gross clears a threshold — puts a cliff in the curve: a show can cross into profit, trigger the bonus and drop back under water. Showforma reports the last crossing, the point above which the show is reliably profitable, because the first one is a number that lies to you at exactly the moment it matters. For a straight line the two are the same answer.

• A percentage deal moves the line too. On a versus deal the artist’s share rises with the box office, so the net per ticket is not constant above the crossover.
• Comps cost you the net per ticket each, and kills cost you the sellable base. Both push the percentage up without touching the fixed cost.